NBA games

PHI @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
133–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
PHI312319381012133
SA24401631105126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home SA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 54 52 5 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 48 26 8 5
Paul Reed S 31 11 10 5
Ricky Council IV 22 11 2 3
Buddy Hield 20 10 2 3
Nicolas Batum S 46 9 7 2
KJ Martin 23 8 2 1
Cameron Payne S 19 3 1 3
Mo Bamba 15 3 7 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 43 33 18 6
Malaki Branham S 44 22 3 1
Tre Jones S 49 17 8 9
Julian Champagnie S 40 17 8 3
Zach Collins 15 9 4 2
Devonte' Graham 35 9 3 6
Keldon Johnson S 24 7 4 1
Blake Wesley 18 6 4 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24 6 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
9%
6 Tre Jones SA
8%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
8 Mo Bamba PHI
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.1 12.5 6.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.0 4.1 6.5
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.7 6.7 3.1
4 Tobias Harris PHI 16.2 7.2 2.6
5 Keldon Johnson SA 15.0 5.3 2.0
6 Tre Jones SA 12.8 4.3 6.1
7 Malaki Branham SA 10.6 2.4 1.9
8 Julian Champagnie SA 9.5 3.6 1.7
9 Zach Collins SA 9.4 4.8 2.2
10 Cameron Payne PHI 8.6 2.6 2.7
11 Buddy Hield PHI 8.4 2.9 1.5
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.5 4.3 1.9
13 Paul Reed PHI 7.5 6.2 1.4
14 Mo Bamba PHI 6.8 6.0 1.0
15 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.5 2.1 2.0
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.5 3.6 1.1
17 KJ Martin PHI 5.3 3.8 1.3
18 Blake Wesley SA 4.9 2.1 2.6
19 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.5 1.1 1.1
20 Devonte' Graham SA 4.5 1.7 1.2
21 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.2 1.3 0.7
22 David Duke Jr. SA 3.4 1.2 0.8
23 Jamaree Bouyea SA 3.0 1.7 1.3
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.5 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.