NBA games

NY @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
122–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25253933122
MIL31302424109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 43 6 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 37 26 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 18 10 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 17 15 1 1
Miles McBride 18 8 2 1
Josh Hart S 37 7 9 9
OG Anunoby S 38 4 3 2
Mitchell Robinson 19 1 6 0
Precious Achiuwa 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 28 15 8
Bobby Portis 29 24 5 2
Damian Lillard S 39 23 4 6
Brook Lopez S 29 13 5 1
Malik Beasley S 23 9 1 3
Khris Middleton S 13 5 4 2
Pat Connaughton 31 5 1 2
AJ Green 13 2 0 0
Chris Livingston 1 0 0 0
Jae Crowder 15 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
25%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.3 3.9 9.1
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.7 12.4 8.0
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.2 4.7 8.5
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 19.1 4.3 3.0
5 Khris Middleton MIL 18.0 5.7 6.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.8 8.9 1.9
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.9 5.0 1.9
8 Miles McBride NY 13.7 3.0 2.6
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 12.6 7.7 3.6
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.5 4.6 1.7
11 Josh Hart NY 11.4 8.5 5.9
12 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.1 1.5
13 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.4 2.0 1.1
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.2 3.3 3.2
15 Jae Crowder MIL 7.0 2.5 1.2
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.5 6.5 1.2
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.3 6.9 1.1
18 Alec Burks NY 5.2 2.2 0.8
19 AJ Green MIL 5.2 1.8 0.8
20 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.8 2.3 0.6
21 Shake Milton NY 4.1 2.3 1.0
22 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.9 1.5 1.1
23 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.3 1.3 0.8
24 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.2 1.2 1.3
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 3.5 0.6
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 1.9 0.9
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 1.0 0.6
28 Jacob Toppin NY 1.8 0.8 0.2
29 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.2 0.5 0.4
30 Chris Livingston MIL 1.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.