NO @ PHX
NBA
Mortgage Matchup Center
·Final
113–105
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 19 | 37 | 34 | 23 | 113 |
| PHX | 26 | 24 | 33 | 22 | 105 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
PHX
37%
63%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum S | 42 | 31 | 4 | 5 |
| Zion Williamson S | 40 | 29 | 10 | 7 |
| Jose Alvarado | 22 | 15 | 3 | 0 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 39 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Dyson Daniels | 28 | 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 32 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Herbert Jones S | 34 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jonas Valanciunas ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 8-foot two point shot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
CJ McCollum
NO
13%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
12%
3
Devin Booker
PHX
11%
4
Kevin Durant
PHX
10%
5
Jusuf Nurkic
PHX
10%
6
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
9%
7
Trey Murphy III
NO
8%
8
Bradley Beal
PHX
8%
9
Grayson Allen
PHX
7%
10
Herbert Jones
NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
57%
Layup
19%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devin Booker | PHX | 26.7 | 5.0 | 7.7 |
| 2 | Zion Williamson | NO | 25.6 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| 3 | Kevin Durant | PHX | 23.8 | 6.9 | 4.4 |
| 4 | CJ McCollum | NO | 22.9 | 4.4 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 15.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| 6 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 14.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 |
| 7 | Bradley Beal | PHX | 14.0 | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| 8 | Herbert Jones | NO | 12.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 9 | Jusuf Nurkic | PHX | 10.3 | 10.2 | 3.9 |
| 10 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 9.9 | 6.5 | 1.5 |
| 11 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| 12 | Dyson Daniels | NO | 7.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| 13 | Eric Gordon | PHX | 7.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 14 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 15 | Bol Bol | PHX | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 16 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Drew Eubanks | PHX | 4.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 18 | Josh Okogie | PHX | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 19 | Matt Ryan | NO | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 20 | Jalen Crutcher | NO | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 21 | Thaddeus Young | PHX | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 23 | E.J. Liddell | NO | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Nassir Little | PHX | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 25 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 26 | Isaiah Thomas | PHX | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 27 | Udoka Azubuike | PHX | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 28 | David Roddy | PHX | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 29 | Cody Zeller | NO | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.