NBA games

WSH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
122–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH17333735122
TOR42213631130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home TOR
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 41 32 10 5
Jordan Poole S 40 29 4 12
Corey Kispert S 40 21 3 3
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 33 16 11 1
Tristan Vukcevic S 23 11 9 4
Jared Butler 17 7 3 2
Eugene Omoruyi 21 4 1 2
Justin Champagnie 14 2 1 0
Jules Bernard 4 0 1 0
Johnny Davis S 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 36 31 7 13
RJ Barrett S 36 22 8 7
Kelly Olynyk S 35 21 9 5
Gary Trent Jr. S 35 20 7 5
Gradey Dick 25 13 4 0
Ochai Agbaji S 28 9 3 1
Bruce Brown 20 9 2 1
Garrett Temple 9 5 2 1
Malik Williams 5 0 2 0
Jalen McDaniels 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 13-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
10%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Corey Kispert WSH
8%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Kelly Olynyk TOR
6%
10 Bruce Brown TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
20%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.6 5.2 5.3
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.1 4.0 7.5
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 22.7 4.2 2.7
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 22.3 5.6 8.3
5 Deni Avdija WSH 21.2 9.1 4.7
6 Corey Kispert WSH 18.2 3.9 2.5
7 Kelly Olynyk TOR 15.1 6.5 5.8
8 Gradey Dick TOR 14.0 3.2 1.8
9 Bruce Brown TOR 11.8 3.6 3.7
10 Jordan Nwora TOR 10.6 4.5 2.1
11 Jared Butler WSH 10.2 3.0 5.1
12 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.6 4.8 2.1
13 Anthony Gill WSH 9.3 3.9 1.6
14 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 9.2 3.9 2.3
15 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.0 8.0 1.0
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.7 4.0 1.6
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.6 3.2 1.1
18 Jalen McDaniels TOR 5.8 2.5 1.4
19 Johnny Davis WSH 5.5 2.6 1.3
20 Garrett Temple TOR 5.0 2.2 1.1
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.8 3.5 1.1
22 Jules Bernard WSH 4.2 1.2 0.9
23 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.8 2.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.