NBA games

CHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
98–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI1430282698
ORL31253324113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ORL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 30 3 5
Javonte Green S 22 15 8 1
Andre Drummond 25 14 10 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 14 5 4
Coby White S 38 11 2 6
Nikola Vucevic S 31 8 5 2
Onuralp Bitim 11 4 0 0
Dalen Terry 15 2 2 0
Henri Drell 1 0 0 1
Adama Sanogo 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 24 6 5
Jalen Suggs S 29 19 3 5
Markelle Fultz 23 17 6 2
Franz Wagner S 20 16 4 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 11 8 3
Joe Ingles 21 9 3 5
Moritz Wagner 15 8 4 0
Cole Anthony 16 6 2 0
Jett Howard 1 3 1 0
Chuma Okeke 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
20%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
6 Coby White CHI
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
8 Gary Harris ORL
7%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Javonte Green CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.1 4.5 5.8
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.2 6.7 6.0
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 20.9 3.3 4.7
4 Franz Wagner ORL 18.5 4.6 3.1
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.2 9.8 3.5
6 Coby White CHI 16.0 3.9 3.8
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.6 2.9 3.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 7.4 2.5
9 Cole Anthony ORL 10.6 4.0 2.6
10 Javonte Green CHI 9.1 5.6 1.0
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.8 3.6 1.5
12 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.2 4.9 1.0
13 Gary Harris ORL 8.1 2.3 1.5
14 Andre Drummond CHI 8.0 8.7 0.8
15 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.2 2.7 2.3
16 Torrey Craig CHI 5.7 2.2 1.0
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.1 2.0 2.5
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.4 2.5 1.5
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.0 0.9 0.8
20 Anthony Black ORL 3.0 1.3 0.6
21 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.9 1.5 0.7
22 Adama Sanogo CHI 2.7 1.6 0.2
23 Andrew Funk CHI 2.3 0.6 0.3
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.3 1.9 0.6
25 Jett Howard ORL 1.8 0.4 0.3
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.5 0.8 0.3
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.