NBA games

OKC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
121–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31342135121
CHA29263033118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CHA
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Wiggins S 36 26 2 5
Chet Holmgren S 31 20 10 2
Josh Giddey S 37 20 13 13
Luguentz Dort S 34 12 3 2
Lindy Waters III 15 10 0 0
Cason Wallace S 24 10 4 3
Isaiah Joe 21 10 1 3
Kenrich Williams 26 7 1 2
Jaylin Williams 16 6 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grant Williams S 38 19 3 5
Tre Mann S 33 18 5 6
Vasilije Micic S 31 17 1 10
Miles Bridges S 40 15 9 3
Aleksej Pokusevski 21 14 9 0
Brandon Miller S 36 13 3 4
Davis Bertans 24 12 2 0
Nick Richards 18 10 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Aaron Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
4 Nick Richards CHA
10%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
8 Grant Williams CHA
8%
9 Tre Mann CHA
8%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
36%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.1 6.8 4.1
2 Brandon Miller CHA 20.2 4.8 2.6
3 Josh Giddey OKC 19.8 7.7 6.9
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.2 7.9 1.7
5 Grant Williams CHA 14.4 5.0 4.2
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.0 3.1 6.5
7 Tre Mann CHA 12.9 3.8 5.4
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.4 3.8 1.7
9 Nick Richards CHA 9.3 8.2 0.9
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.5 2.9 1.8
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.5 2.7 1.9
12 Davis Bertans CHA 8.3 2.1 1.3
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.1 3.8 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.7 2.8 1.7
15 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 7.4 3.9 1.8
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.4 3.6 2.5
17 Leaky Black CHA 4.3 2.6 1.3
18 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.1 1.9 0.9
19 JT Thor CHA 3.2 1.8 0.7
20 Marques Bolden CHA 3.2 3.5 0.6
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.0 1.2 0.8
22 Bryce McGowens CHA 2.9 1.4 0.7
23 Mike Muscala OKC 2.8 1.5 0.6
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.3 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.