NBA games

POR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
107–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR24322922107
BOS30333031124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home BOS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 37 28 3 9
Deandre Ayton S 35 22 14 2
Scoot Henderson S 36 15 1 8
Jabari Walker S 34 14 18 0
Kris Murray S 26 10 7 2
Justin Minaya 23 9 2 2
Rayan Rupert S 33 9 3 2
Duop Reath 16 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 30 26 4 2
Payton Pritchard 26 20 3 8
Derrick White S 31 15 1 9
Jrue Holiday S 21 12 1 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 12 10 2
Sam Hauser 27 10 2 3
Xavier Tillman 17 9 5 1
Al Horford S 21 7 6 3
Oshae Brissett 9 6 1 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 12 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Al Horford makes 3-foot driving dunk (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
11%
5 Kris Murray POR
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Jabari Walker POR
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Rayan Rupert POR
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.3 5.0 3.9
2 Deandre Ayton POR 22.0 12.1 2.2
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.8 7.9 2.9
4 Scoot Henderson POR 19.8 4.2 7.2
5 Derrick White BOS 19.2 5.6 6.3
6 Dalano Banton POR 19.0 5.6 4.3
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.2 3.2 5.1
8 Al Horford BOS 13.3 5.2 2.4
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.4 4.4 5.1
10 Sam Hauser BOS 11.4 4.1 1.6
11 Jabari Walker POR 10.5 8.3 1.7
12 Kris Murray POR 10.4 4.5 1.7
13 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.6 3.7 1.5
14 Duop Reath POR 9.0 3.5 1.2
15 Rayan Rupert POR 7.0 3.6 2.3
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.7 2.9 1.5
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 4.7 1.0
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.5 2.5 0.9
19 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.1 2.8 1.1
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.0 1.5 1.1
21 Justin Minaya POR 3.2 2.0 0.6
22 Moses Brown POR 2.6 2.1 0.4
23 Jaden Springer BOS 1.5 1.1 0.4
24 Ibou Badji POR 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.