NBA games

MIA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
115–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24223237115
IND38252826117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home IND
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 39 27 7 8
Tyler Herro 31 21 5 1
Bam Adebayo S 37 20 12 3
Caleb Martin 36 20 3 2
Nikola Jovic S 24 18 2 0
Terry Rozier S 22 4 0 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 13 3 3 1
Kevin Love 7 2 0 1
Haywood Highsmith 19 0 4 1
Duncan Robinson S 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 37 22 13 2
T.J. McConnell 27 22 0 5
Pascal Siakam S 32 18 8 1
Aaron Nesmith S 40 16 5 3
Obi Toppin 16 13 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 12 4 8
Andrew Nembhard S 25 10 2 2
Jalen Smith 11 4 1 2
Ben Sheppard 20 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 2-foot layup (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
4 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
8%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.7 8.8 3.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.4 11.4 4.3
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.1 4.4 4.7
4 Tyler Herro MIA 18.8 5.1 5.2
5 Terry Rozier MIA 18.7 4.2 3.2
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.7 4.3 9.5
7 T.J. McConnell IND 13.1 3.4 5.5
8 Myles Turner IND 12.2 5.7 1.5
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.4 3.1 2.0
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.2 3.9 1.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.8 2.6 3.2
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.2 3.2 2.4
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.8 5.2 1.5
14 Caleb Martin MIA 8.8 3.6 2.2
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.7 3.9 2.0
16 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 4.2 1.3
17 Kevin Love MIA 8.1 6.2 1.6
18 Jalen Smith IND 8.1 5.8 0.9
19 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.1 5.1 0.5
20 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 1.8 1.4
21 Patty Mills MIA 4.7 1.2 1.4
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.7 3.8 0.8
23 Delon Wright MIA 4.2 1.7 1.4
24 Doug McDermott IND 4.0 1.3 0.8
25 Jamal Cain MIA 3.4 1.5 0.8
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.1 1.7 0.5
27 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.6 0.8
28 Alondes Williams MIA 2.3 0.9 0.3
29 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.5 0.3
30 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.