NBA games

CLE @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE40401820118
LAC33262734120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home LAC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 40 28 5 8
Max Strus S 39 20 4 9
Evan Mobley S 31 20 6 4
Caris LeVert S 37 18 5 2
Jarrett Allen S 35 17 10 1
Isaac Okoro 25 11 3 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 13 2 1 0
Georges Niang 14 2 2 2
Sam Merrill 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 44 39 11 7
James Harden S 26 22 5 5
Norman Powell 28 14 3 0
Ivica Zubac S 27 14 11 1
Terance Mann S 29 14 4 3
Russell Westbrook 25 8 7 6
Mason Plumlee 17 6 5 2
Amir Coffey 28 3 1 1
P.J. Tucker S 14 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Darius Garland CLE
13%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
5 Paul George LAC
11%
6 Terance Mann LAC
10%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 P.J. Tucker LAC
7%
10 Georges Niang CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 22.8 4.7 3.4
2 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.6 10.1 3.4
3 Evan Mobley CLE 16.4 6.8 3.9
4 Darius Garland CLE 16.1 3.0 7.1
5 Caris LeVert CLE 15.6 5.4 5.7
6 Norman Powell LAC 15.4 2.3 1.8
7 James Harden LAC 14.5 5.5 9.2
8 Max Strus CLE 13.1 4.1 4.0
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.3 10.0 1.6
10 Georges Niang CLE 11.1 2.9 1.4
11 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.1 3.3 3.7
12 Terance Mann LAC 10.0 3.0 1.5
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.9 2.4 1.3
14 Sam Merrill CLE 7.8 2.1 1.8
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.3 2.6 1.6
16 Bones Hyland LAC 6.3 1.7 3.1
17 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 5.8 2.2 1.2
18 Brandon Boston LAC 5.5 2.2 0.7
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 1.8 1.7
20 Damian Jones CLE 4.7 2.6 0.6
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 4.2 2.9 0.9
22 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.5 3.0 0.7
23 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.3 1.9 0.9
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 2.4 0.8
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.7 1.4 0.6
26 Xavier Moon LAC 2.4 1.3 0.8
27 Pete Nance CLE 2.3 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.