NBA games

HOU @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
136–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU422935237136
DAL2739323118147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DAL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 42 29 2 2
Fred VanVleet S 44 24 1 12
Jalen Green S 40 21 6 8
Jock Landale 16 13 1 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 12 9 2
Cam Whitmore 19 11 4 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 23 11 3 1
Jeff Green 17 7 1 1
Amen Thompson S 8 5 3 3
Aaron Holiday 14 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 45 48 7 2
Luka Doncic S 45 37 9 12
Dante Exum 35 14 9 2
P.J. Washington S 43 14 13 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 10 2 0
Maxi Kleber 30 9 4 3
Daniel Gafford S 16 6 1 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 18 5 1 0
Jaden Hardy 6 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jalen Green makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
10 Dante Exum DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.4 10.2 9.2
2 Jalen Green HOU 25.8 6.4 5.2
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.3 4.5 5.4
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.7 3.9 7.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 6.1 1.7
6 Amen Thompson HOU 14.8 9.4 2.8
7 P.J. Washington DAL 13.4 6.8 1.9
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.3 4.9 1.2
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.9 7.8 2.4
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.5 2.9 1.6
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 9.0 2.8 2.0
12 Jock Landale HOU 8.5 5.8 1.6
13 Jeff Green HOU 8.0 3.2 1.1
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.8 3.8 1.2
15 Dante Exum DAL 7.5 2.5 2.6
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.2 1.7 1.9
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.8 3.0 1.4
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.8 1.8 1.4
19 Nate Hinton HOU 3.6 1.9 0.7
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.1 2.2 0.5
21 Brandon Williams DAL 2.8 1.2 1.0
22 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.7 1.7 0.5
23 Alex Fudge DAL 2.7 1.8 0.5
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.6 1.4 0.5
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.5 1.6 0.5
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 1.9 0.6
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.3 1.5 0.5
28 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.