NBA games

ATL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
110–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL26303024110
DEN33364231142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DEN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Clint Capela S 30 19 12 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 31 18 2 2
De'Andre Hunter S 29 18 1 2
Jalen Johnson S 34 17 6 4
Dejounte Murray S 36 14 2 12
Garrison Mathews 19 11 0 0
Bruno Fernando 18 6 6 2
Kobe Bufkin 14 4 3 3
Vit Krejci 25 3 5 2
Mouhamed Gueye 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 24 2 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 20 3 2
Nikola Jokic S 31 19 14 11
Reggie Jackson 24 18 5 3
Jamal Murray S 21 16 3 6
Peyton Watson 27 13 6 2
Justin Holiday 24 8 0 6
Christian Braun S 25 5 3 1
Julian Strawther 12 5 4 3
Zeke Nnaji 14 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
17%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
53%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
18%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.3 12.5 9.2
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.7 5.7 9.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.4 5.1 8.1
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.1 4.4 4.0
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.7 8.2 4.6
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.7 7.3 2.3
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.9 4.7 2.7
8 Clint Capela ATL 12.0 10.9 1.6
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.9 2.2 4.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.7 3.5 2.5
11 Vit Krejci ATL 9.5 2.8 2.2
12 Christian Braun DEN 9.1 4.2 2.1
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.3 4.7 1.7
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.1 1.8 1.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 5.4 3.9 0.9
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.3 2.0 1.6
17 Wesley Matthews ATL 5.2 2.2 0.9
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.7 2.0 0.9
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 1.9 0.9
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 3.8 0.8
21 Trent Forrest ATL 2.9 1.2 2.7
22 Julian Strawther DEN 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 0.8 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.8 1.7 0.3
25 Jay Huff DEN 1.6 0.9 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.5 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.