NBA games

PHI @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
116–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28342430116
MEM2319282696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MEM
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 23 30 12 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 17 5 5
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 14 11 5 2
KJ Martin 22 10 6 1
Nicolas Batum S 21 9 3 0
Kyle Lowry S 21 8 1 1
Tyrese Maxey S 25 7 1 5
Buddy Hield 26 7 1 1
Paul Reed 23 6 5 5
Terquavion Smith 6 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 30 24 2 5
GG Jackson S 29 17 6 3
Jordan Goodwin S 31 15 4 4
Zavier Simpson 30 14 4 4
Maozinha Pereira S 36 13 11 1
Brandon Clarke 23 6 8 2
Trey Jemison III S 33 5 7 2
Timmy Allen 26 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
17%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
4 Trey Jemison III MEM
8%
5 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
7 GG Jackson MEM
7%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
6%
10 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
93%
Jumper
3%
Layup
2%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.0 8.8 5.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.9 3.9 6.6
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20.1 6.4 3.0
4 GG Jackson MEM 16.7 5.1 2.8
5 Luke Kennard MEM 12.6 3.0 5.3
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.4 3.0 4.9
7 Santi Aldama MEM 11.4 6.4 1.9
8 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.2 4.1 2.2
9 Lamar Stevens MEM 11.1 5.2 1.4
10 Jordan Goodwin MEM 11.0 6.7 4.9
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 11.0 6.4 1.7
12 Kyle Lowry PHI 10.4 3.1 4.6
13 Trey Jemison III MEM 9.7 6.1 1.3
14 Buddy Hield PHI 9.0 3.0 1.6
15 Cameron Payne PHI 8.8 2.6 2.7
16 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.0 4.8 2.3
17 Paul Reed PHI 7.5 6.7 1.3
18 Mo Bamba PHI 7.3 6.2 1.1
19 Maozinha Pereira MEM 5.6 4.2 0.7
20 KJ Martin PHI 4.8 3.3 1.3
21 Zavier Simpson MEM 4.8 2.4 3.4
22 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.3 1.1 1.1
23 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.0 1.2 1.7
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.0 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.