NBA games

DET @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
103–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET35222620103
BKN23232938113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BKN
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chimezie Metu S 43 20 7 3
Marcus Sasser S 33 18 1 6
Jaden Ivey S 31 16 4 10
Troy Brown Jr. S 34 15 2 0
Jaylen Nowell 19 12 4 0
Jared Rhoden 21 7 2 1
Taj Gibson 9 5 0 0
James Wiseman S 26 4 5 0
Malachi Flynn 15 3 3 5
Buddy Boeheim 10 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 39 32 6 5
Dennis Schroder S 36 24 5 6
Noah Clowney 24 17 6 0
Mikal Bridges S 31 13 2 3
Jalen Wilson 18 10 4 1
Trendon Watford 16 7 2 1
Nic Claxton S 30 5 9 3
Lonnie Walker IV 11 3 1 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 24 2 7 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 10 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Wiseman · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"James Wiseman makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Chimezie Metu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
9%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
7%
9 Stanley Umude DET
7%
10 Troy Brown Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.6 4.3 4.5
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.2 5.5 7.6
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.1 4.1 4.3
4 Jaden Ivey DET 17.5 3.9 3.8
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 16.6 4.2 6.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.5 10.9 1.9
7 Nic Claxton BKN 12.6 10.8 2.0
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.7 3.8 2.0
9 Malachi Flynn DET 10.8 3.2 2.4
10 James Wiseman DET 10.7 7.2 1.5
11 Marcus Sasser DET 9.5 2.7 4.2
12 Trendon Watford BKN 9.3 3.4 1.4
13 Chimezie Metu DET 9.2 5.0 2.0
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.3 4.3 1.7
15 Jaylen Nowell DET 6.2 1.9 1.7
16 Troy Brown Jr. DET 5.9 3.5 1.3
17 Evan Fournier DET 5.7 2.0 1.7
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.0 2.3 0.9
19 Noah Clowney BKN 5.0 3.3 0.8
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 4.9 1.4 1.9
21 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 4.8 5.3 0.9
22 Jared Rhoden DET 4.7 2.1 1.0
23 Buddy Boeheim DET 4.1 1.3 0.7
24 Stanley Umude DET 4.1 1.8 0.5
25 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 3.2 1.7 0.6
26 Taj Gibson DET 2.0 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.