NBA games

CLE @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
97–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE3323221997
LAL36292526116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home LAL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 35 26 2 2
Caris LeVert 28 21 7 2
Jarrett Allen S 34 12 12 3
Georges Niang 23 12 1 1
Donovan Mitchell S 38 10 5 7
Evan Mobley S 29 8 3 3
Max Strus S 30 5 6 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 5 3 1 1
Isaiah Mobley 2 0 0 0
Craig Porter Jr. 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 31 28 5 2
LeBron James S 36 24 5 12
Anthony Davis S 36 22 13 4
Taurean Prince 21 18 4 1
Austin Reaves S 33 7 2 6
Rui Hachimura S 27 7 5 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 25 6 2 2
Jaxson Hayes 12 4 3 0
Maxwell Lewis 2 0 0 0
Colin Castleton 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
15%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
8%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
9 Darius Garland CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.7 8.2 9.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 22.8 12.6 3.3
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.8 4.0 6.8
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 19.5 4.2 5.2
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.0 10.2 3.3
6 Austin Reaves LAL 17.9 6.2 6.2
7 Evan Mobley CLE 17.4 8.3 4.8
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.2 6.1 2.0
9 Caris LeVert CLE 16.2 5.0 6.5
10 Darius Garland CLE 15.1 3.3 8.0
11 Max Strus CLE 13.2 3.8 4.2
12 Georges Niang CLE 11.8 3.0 1.5
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 9.7 2.6 2.0
14 Sam Merrill CLE 9.0 2.2 1.9
15 Taurean Prince LAL 8.1 3.0 1.4
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.6 1.6 2.2
17 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 6.5 2.6 1.2
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.1 1.0
19 Damian Jones CLE 4.6 2.7 0.6
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.0 1.2 1.3
21 Max Christie LAL 3.8 1.6 0.8
22 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.5 1.8 1.0
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 2.6 0.9
24 Colin Castleton LAL 2.4 1.3 0.6
25 Cam Reddish LAL 2.4 1.0 0.4
26 Pete Nance CLE 2.3 1.1 0.5
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.3 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.