NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
87–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN2021202687
PHX3225202097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 17 8 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 13 5 2
Monte Morris 22 9 4 3
Naz Reid S 32 8 11 2
Kyle Anderson 17 6 1 3
Jaden McDaniels S 26 6 2 1
Mike Conley S 25 5 0 3
Jordan McLaughlin 14 4 1 0
T.J. Warren 4 4 1 2
Rudy Gobert S 29 4 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 33 23 8 1
Kevin Durant S 35 22 6 6
Bradley Beal S 27 14 3 2
Devin Booker S 34 13 3 13
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 11 15 6
Drew Eubanks 18 5 4 0
Eric Gordon 17 4 1 1
Royce O'Neale 20 3 3 0
Bol Bol 12 2 3 0
Udoka Azubuike 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
6 Naz Reid MIN
8%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
50%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 5.4 7.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 6.6 6.2
3 Kevin Durant PHX 23.7 7.4 4.2
4 Naz Reid MIN 17.6 6.3 2.7
5 Mike Conley MIN 16.0 2.6 5.5
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.7 3.7 3.2
7 Bradley Beal PHX 14.2 5.0 6.3
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.7 4.4 1.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 11.2 2.1
10 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.7 4.4 5.2
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.7 10.1 3.7
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.2 2.3 1.8
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 4.1 1.4
14 Eric Gordon PHX 7.6 2.1 1.5
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.9 1.5 2.3
16 Monte Morris MIN 5.6 1.7 1.6
17 Luka Garza MIN 5.2 1.6 0.6
18 Bol Bol PHX 5.0 3.0 0.7
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.9 4.1 0.8
20 T.J. Warren MIN 4.3 2.0 0.8
21 Josh Okogie PHX 3.5 1.8 0.8
22 Daishen Nix MIN 2.9 0.9 0.7
23 Thaddeus Young PHX 2.9 3.1 0.7
24 Isaiah Thomas PHX 2.8 1.0 0.7
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.7 1.2 0.8
26 Nassir Little PHX 2.5 1.2 0.5
27 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 1.3 0.5
28 David Roddy PHX 2.4 1.4 0.5
29 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 1.2 0.6
30 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.1 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.