NBA games

ATL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
95–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL3126241495
DAL25402816109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DAL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 36 17 7 2
Dejounte Murray S 35 16 5 4
Garrison Mathews 15 14 2 0
De'Andre Hunter S 37 13 3 3
Bruno Fernando 19 10 5 2
Kobe Bufkin 13 9 3 1
Jalen Johnson S 36 6 16 4
Clint Capela S 29 6 13 2
Vit Krejci 15 4 2 3
Wesley Matthews 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 35 26 5 1
Luka Doncic S 37 25 12 8
P.J. Washington S 36 19 8 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 14 5 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 8 2 3
Maxi Kleber 21 7 6 2
Daniel Gafford S 23 6 3 1
Jaden Hardy 6 2 3 0
Dwight Powell 8 2 3 0
A.J. Lawson 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Clint Capela makes dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
9%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
47%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.2 10.2 10.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.6 4.3 6.5
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.0 5.7 9.4
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.7 7.9 4.9
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.2 4.4 4.1
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.5 4.7 2.6
7 Clint Capela ATL 11.8 10.6 1.8
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.8 8.0 2.3
9 P.J. Washington DAL 10.6 6.5 1.4
10 Vit Krejci ATL 9.6 2.9 2.1
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.6 2.9 1.9
12 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.0 4.7 1.8
13 Dante Exum DAL 7.7 2.1 2.6
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.6 1.9 1.1
15 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.9 3.1 1.2
16 Wesley Matthews ATL 5.3 2.2 0.9
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.2 1.4 1.2
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.7 1.9 1.6
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.4 2.3 1.4
20 Trent Forrest ATL 2.9 1.3 2.7
21 Brandon Williams DAL 2.7 1.2 1.0
22 Alex Fudge DAL 2.7 1.7 0.5
23 Seth Lundy ATL 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.3 1.4 0.6
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 0.9 0.4
26 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.7 0.9 0.3
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.