NBA games

SA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA18333525111
NO27342523109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NO
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devonte' Graham 25 20 2 5
Victor Wembanyama S 34 17 12 9
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 27 15 5 2
Zach Collins 27 15 7 3
Julian Champagnie S 38 15 4 4
Tre Jones S 33 14 2 4
Malaki Branham S 34 14 1 2
Blake Wesley 16 1 1 5
Sidy Cissoko 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 39 31 6 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 28 26 7 7
Trey Murphy III S 35 16 8 4
Herbert Jones S 38 15 4 3
Dyson Daniels S 37 7 7 2
Larry Nance Jr. 20 6 3 6
Jordan Hawkins 18 6 3 0
Naji Marshall 14 2 3 2
Matt Ryan 11 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 25-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
20%
2 Zion Williamson NO
15%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
5 Herbert Jones NO
8%
6 Tre Jones SA
8%
7 Malaki Branham SA
8%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
32%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.2 11.9 6.0
2 Zion Williamson NO 26.3 6.8 5.4
3 CJ McCollum NO 24.3 4.4 6.3
4 Trey Murphy III NO 15.3 6.6 2.8
5 Herbert Jones NO 11.9 3.6 3.1
6 Tre Jones SA 11.4 4.5 5.9
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 8.6 6.3 1.4
8 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 2.1 1.5
9 Zach Collins SA 8.4 4.4 1.8
10 Julian Champagnie SA 8.2 3.1 1.5
11 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.8 4.6 1.8
12 Naji Marshall NO 7.2 3.7 1.7
13 Dyson Daniels NO 6.7 3.5 2.5
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 3.2 0.8
15 Blake Wesley SA 4.4 1.9 2.0
16 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.5 0.9
17 David Duke Jr. SA 3.3 1.2 0.7
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.0 1.7 0.9
19 E.J. Liddell NO 2.9 1.5 0.7
20 Jamaree Bouyea SA 2.8 1.6 1.2
21 Matt Ryan NO 2.8 0.9 0.4
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.3 1.5 0.5
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.3 0.9 0.5
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.0 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.