NBA games

TOR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
117–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR21373227117
MIL27273126111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 37 31 5 3
RJ Barrett S 34 26 7 2
Immanuel Quickley S 36 25 11 9
Kelly Olynyk S 33 12 7 2
Gradey Dick 26 10 5 0
Javon Freeman-Liberty 12 4 2 0
Jordan Nwora 12 4 1 1
Ochai Agbaji S 35 3 8 3
Jalen McDaniels 13 2 1 4
Malik Williams 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 38 36 5 6
Khris Middleton S 34 21 5 6
Bobby Portis 28 19 10 1
Brook Lopez S 20 15 4 1
AJ Green 23 6 3 0
Jae Crowder S 18 4 5 1
Pat Connaughton 33 4 4 2
Malik Beasley S 24 3 4 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 16 3 4 1
Danilo Gallinari 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
6 Kelly Olynyk TOR
7%
7 Jalen McDaniels TOR
7%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
10 Bruce Brown TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 24.9 4.6 8.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.4 5.2 5.3
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 20.5 3.8 2.2
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.8 5.0 8.5
5 Khris Middleton MIL 19.1 5.6 6.7
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.4 8.6 2.1
7 Kelly Olynyk TOR 15.1 6.2 6.1
8 Brook Lopez MIL 13.7 5.1 2.2
9 Gradey Dick TOR 13.4 3.1 1.7
10 Malik Beasley MIL 12.0 3.3 1.6
11 Jordan Nwora TOR 11.6 5.0 2.0
12 Bruce Brown TOR 11.5 3.6 3.6
13 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 8.3 3.6 2.3
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.9 3.5 1.4
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.7 3.2 3.7
16 Jae Crowder MIL 7.5 2.4 1.3
17 Kobi Simmons TOR 5.7 2.0 2.4
18 Jalen McDaniels TOR 5.5 3.0 1.3
19 AJ Green MIL 5.5 1.8 0.9
20 Garrett Temple TOR 5.1 2.3 1.0
21 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.2 1.7 1.1
22 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.0 1.6 1.4
23 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.7 1.4 1.0
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.7 0.9
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.7 0.5
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.