NBA games

DET @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
90–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2216322090
MEM32253219108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MEM
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 32 31 3 3
Jalen Duren S 24 17 10 0
Jaylen Nowell 20 12 3 2
Tosan Evbuomwan S 24 8 2 3
Chimezie Metu 22 6 6 1
Jared Rhoden 21 6 1 2
Troy Brown Jr. S 23 5 7 3
Malachi Flynn 23 3 1 6
Marcus Sasser S 25 2 2 2
Evan Fournier 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Jemison III S 31 17 13 1
Maozinha Pereira 30 17 9 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 29 16 3 7
GG Jackson S 27 15 3 4
Lamar Stevens 28 15 8 1
Jordan Goodwin S 28 14 6 6
Jake LaRavia S 34 12 5 2
Zavier Simpson 33 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
GG Jackson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:40 Q1
"GG Jackson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
3 Jalen Duren DET
8%
4 GG Jackson MEM
8%
5 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
7 Trey Jemison III MEM
8%
8 Marcus Sasser DET
7%
9 Troy Brown Jr. DET
7%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 5.6 7.9
2 GG Jackson MEM 17.6 5.2 2.5
3 Jaden Ivey DET 16.7 4.0 4.5
4 Jalen Duren DET 14.6 11.5 2.0
5 Luke Kennard MEM 12.7 3.1 5.4
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.5 3.3 4.5
7 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.3 4.1 2.3
8 Santi Aldama MEM 11.7 6.6 2.0
9 James Wiseman DET 11.5 7.4 1.6
10 Brandon Clarke MEM 11.4 6.5 1.7
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.2 4.2 2.2
12 Marcus Sasser DET 10.8 2.8 4.4
13 Malachi Flynn DET 10.8 3.0 2.0
14 Jordan Goodwin MEM 10.3 7.0 5.2
15 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.3 4.6 1.3
16 Trey Jemison III MEM 9.2 5.3 1.3
17 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 9.0 3.9 1.2
18 Chimezie Metu DET 8.1 4.5 1.8
19 Evan Fournier DET 6.8 2.3 2.0
20 Jaylen Nowell DET 6.0 1.7 1.5
21 Troy Brown Jr. DET 5.2 3.0 1.2
22 DeJon Jarreau MEM 4.8 3.9 2.2
23 Stanley Umude DET 4.4 1.8 0.5
24 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.4 0.9 0.5
25 Zavier Simpson MEM 3.3 1.8 2.9
26 Jared Rhoden DET 3.2 1.6 0.7
27 Maozinha Pereira MEM 2.9 2.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.