NBA games

MIA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
119–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA27372926119
HOU27322421104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home HOU
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 29 22 3 3
Bam Adebayo S 33 18 12 6
Tyler Herro 25 17 5 6
Terry Rozier S 25 13 3 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 12 2 1
Duncan Robinson S 21 10 3 2
Caleb Martin 29 9 4 2
Nikola Jovic S 15 8 6 1
Kevin Love 15 6 5 0
Haywood Highsmith 27 4 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 21 7 4
Dillon Brooks S 37 18 5 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 15 8 2
Fred VanVleet S 37 13 6 8
Cam Whitmore 21 12 4 1
Jeff Green S 22 11 2 2
Jock Landale 26 10 6 4
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 1 2 1 0
Nate Williams 3 2 2 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
10 Patty Mills MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.8 6.6 5.3
2 Terry Rozier MIA 21.0 4.4 3.6
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.9 11.4 3.9
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.2 4.7 4.7
5 Tyler Herro MIA 18.4 4.6 5.0
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.5 3.8 8.3
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.2 5.7 1.7
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.1 4.5 1.2
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.8 3.2 2.1
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.2 2.7 1.6
11 Caleb Martin MIA 9.9 3.9 2.6
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.7 4.7 1.4
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.0 3.3 2.5
14 Jock Landale HOU 8.5 5.0 1.3
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.3 3.6 2.0
16 Jeff Green HOU 8.2 3.3 1.0
17 Kevin Love MIA 7.9 6.2 1.7
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.0 5.1 0.5
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.6 1.7 2.2
20 Patty Mills MIA 4.6 1.2 1.4
21 Delon Wright MIA 4.2 1.7 1.4
22 Nate Hinton HOU 3.6 1.5 0.7
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.2 2.4 0.6
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.9 2.3 0.5
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.5 1.4 0.5
26 Jamal Cain MIA 2.4 0.9 0.5
27 Nate Williams HOU 2.4 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.