NBA games

NY @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
100–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY17283124100
CHI29322027108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 35 6 11
Miles McBride 38 19 7 2
OG Anunoby S 29 12 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 10 7 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 10 4 3
Bojan Bogdanovic 20 9 1 1
Mitchell Robinson 11 5 5 1
Alec Burks 8 0 2 0
Josh Hart S 11 0 1 1
Precious Achiuwa 19 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Javonte Green 33 25 13 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 24 6 5
DeMar DeRozan S 42 20 5 10
Nikola Vucevic S 32 16 13 6
Andre Drummond 24 10 16 0
Alex Caruso S 32 7 1 4
Dalen Terry 13 2 0 0
Coby White S 14 2 3 1
Torrey Craig 8 2 0 0
Onuralp Bitim 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
2 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
9%
5 Coby White CHI
9%
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
8 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
18%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 31.0 3.4 8.8
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.8 4.5 5.4
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 20.5 4.1 2.9
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 18.9 3.1 4.9
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.7 9.4 3.7
6 Coby White CHI 17.1 4.0 4.6
7 Miles McBride NY 14.9 3.3 2.8
8 OG Anunoby NY 13.9 4.3 2.1
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.4 4.1 4.9
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 12.2 8.0 3.5
11 Josh Hart NY 10.0 8.4 5.6
12 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.5 2.2 1.2
13 Andre Drummond CHI 7.8 8.9 0.7
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.9 6.9 1.3
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.6 6.7 1.3
16 Alec Burks NY 5.3 2.0 0.9
17 Torrey Craig CHI 5.3 2.4 1.0
18 Mamadi Diakite NY 5.0 2.3 0.6
19 Javonte Green CHI 5.0 3.2 0.7
20 Shake Milton NY 4.3 2.3 1.0
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 0.9 0.9
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 2.2 1.4
23 Jericho Sims NY 3.1 3.5 0.7
24 Adama Sanogo CHI 2.8 1.6 0.3
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.6 1.0 0.7
26 Andrew Funk CHI 2.6 0.6 0.3
27 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.2 1.1 0.7
28 Jacob Toppin NY 1.9 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.