NBA games

SAC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC15352228100
BOS27273017101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home BOS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 44 40 4 2
Domantas Sabonis S 34 16 16 6
Keegan Murray S 42 10 11 4
Harrison Barnes S 28 10 5 1
Davion Mitchell 25 7 6 5
Sasha Vezenkov 14 6 2 1
Keon Ellis S 17 3 4 2
Kessler Edwards 10 3 1 0
Trey Lyles 17 3 2 0
Colby Jones 6 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 33 21 1 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 24 20 11 2
Jayson Tatum S 33 17 6 5
Jrue Holiday S 31 10 4 7
Xavier Tillman 19 9 4 2
Al Horford S 20 8 6 1
Luke Kornet 18 6 5 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 12 5 2 1
Sam Hauser S 36 3 7 3
Oshae Brissett 7 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Ellis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Keon Ellis makes 27-foot three pointer (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
19%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
8 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
0%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.4 5.8 6.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 7.1 5.1
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.6 7.6 2.9
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.2 12.2 7.6
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.1 5.0 2.0
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.0 3.5 5.6
7 Al Horford BOS 12.8 5.7 2.6
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.8 4.5 5.0
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.4 3.2 1.4
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.1 4.0 1.4
11 Keon Ellis SAC 8.9 4.3 2.0
12 Davion Mitchell SAC 8.1 2.4 1.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 3.8 1.6
14 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.3 2.0 0.7
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 4.0 1.0
16 Chris Duarte SAC 4.3 1.9 0.7
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.1 2.6 1.0
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.9 1.5 1.0
19 Alex Len SAC 3.8 3.5 1.0
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.4 1.5 0.6
21 JaVale McGee SAC 3.0 1.9 0.5
22 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 2.6 0.7
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.4 1.5 0.6
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.3 1.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.