NBA games

POR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
108–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32272722108
WSH27243021102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home WSH
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 40 34 13 3
Dalano Banton 34 21 8 8
Scoot Henderson S 30 19 3 7
Kris Murray S 28 13 5 0
Jabari Walker S 39 11 13 3
Duop Reath 11 5 2 2
Rayan Rupert S 32 3 7 4
Justin Minaya 25 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 22 12 0
Jordan Poole S 35 20 5 9
Tristan Vukcevic S 24 17 7 2
Corey Kispert S 41 12 3 5
Anthony Gill 31 8 3 1
Johnny Davis S 21 7 1 3
Jared Butler 13 6 2 2
Eugene Omoruyi 17 5 6 0
Justin Champagnie 13 3 5 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 7 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Kris Murray makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
7 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
8 Kris Murray POR
7%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.3 3.6 6.2
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.3 3.9 7.0
3 Deandre Ayton POR 22.6 12.2 2.0
4 Scoot Henderson POR 21.5 4.3 6.9
5 Dalano Banton POR 21.0 5.5 4.4
6 Deni Avdija WSH 20.8 8.5 5.0
7 Corey Kispert WSH 16.7 3.9 2.1
8 Jabari Walker POR 10.8 7.3 1.7
9 Jared Butler WSH 10.8 3.0 5.4
10 Kris Murray POR 10.0 4.5 1.9
11 Shaedon Sharpe POR 10.0 3.8 1.6
12 Duop Reath POR 8.8 3.3 1.2
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.8 7.6 1.0
14 Anthony Gill WSH 8.3 3.6 1.4
15 Rayan Rupert POR 7.0 3.1 2.0
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.7 3.5 1.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.4 3.1 1.6
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.4 2.5 0.9
19 Johnny Davis WSH 4.9 2.1 1.3
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.9 3.2 1.2
21 Jules Bernard WSH 4.6 1.4 1.0
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.4 1.9 0.8
23 Moses Brown POR 2.9 2.4 0.4
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.1 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.