NBA games

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32273023112
IND31383126126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home IND
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luguentz Dort S 32 22 2 1
Kenrich Williams 26 18 8 3
Chet Holmgren S 28 15 8 0
Josh Giddey S 35 14 9 12
Lindy Waters III 18 12 4 3
Isaiah Joe S 32 10 4 3
Gordon Hayward S 13 7 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 16 4 1 1
Mike Muscala 7 4 1 0
Jaylin Williams 12 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 21 5 2
Aaron Nesmith S 25 17 4 1
Myles Turner S 18 16 3 0
T.J. McConnell 21 16 5 10
Obi Toppin 25 15 8 1
Jalen Smith 13 12 6 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 8 2 11
Ben Sheppard 23 8 2 0
Doug McDermott 12 6 1 1
Isaiah Jackson 11 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Jalen Smith IND
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
19%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.9 10.2 3.9
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.1 4.7 8.7
3 Josh Giddey OKC 19.3 7.4 5.7
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.3 8.0 1.7
5 Myles Turner IND 14.0 6.0 1.4
6 T.J. McConnell IND 13.3 3.4 5.2
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.6 3.9 1.8
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.4 2.6 3.3
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.4 3.9 1.8
10 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 3.7 1.4
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.3 2.9 1.7
12 Jalen Smith IND 8.3 5.9 0.8
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.6 1.7
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 2.9 1.7
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.6 3.4 1.0
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 1.9 1.5
17 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.3 2.0 1.3
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.6 2.4
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.8 3.9 0.8
20 Doug McDermott IND 3.9 1.4 0.9
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.3 1.6 0.6
22 Jarace Walker IND 3.2 1.7 0.9
23 Mike Muscala OKC 2.9 1.8 0.6
24 Quenton Jackson IND 2.9 0.8 0.7
25 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.7 2.2 0.8
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.6 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.