NBA games

ORL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
115–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL23292736115
CHA38292730124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHA
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 40 32 8 8
Franz Wagner S 28 22 7 1
Markelle Fultz 32 15 6 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 13 7 1
Gary Harris S 29 12 3 6
Moritz Wagner 11 8 4 0
Jalen Suggs S 22 8 1 2
Joe Ingles 22 3 0 2
Cole Anthony 19 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 39 32 6 2
Miles Bridges S 42 23 6 4
Grant Williams S 38 18 6 7
Vasilije Micic S 35 14 5 9
Davis Bertans 20 12 4 0
Aleksej Pokusevski 18 10 2 2
Tre Mann S 32 7 4 5
JT Thor 6 4 0 0
Marques Bolden 10 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
17%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
4 Nick Richards CHA
8%
5 Tre Mann CHA
7%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
7%
7 Grant Williams CHA
6%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
6%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
10 Gary Harris ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.2 7.0 6.3
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.4 6.5 4.1
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.1 4.6 3.7
4 Brandon Miller CHA 16.5 4.5 2.2
5 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.2 2.7 6.0
6 Grant Williams CHA 13.5 4.8 3.3
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.5 3.0 3.9
8 Tre Mann CHA 12.6 3.8 5.4
9 Cole Anthony ORL 12.3 4.5 2.7
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 7.8 2.8
11 Nick Richards CHA 9.1 7.8 0.9
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.9 3.6 1.6
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.7 5.1 1.1
14 Gary Harris ORL 8.0 2.3 1.3
15 Davis Bertans CHA 7.6 1.8 1.3
16 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 7.0 4.1 1.8
17 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.1 2.9 2.1
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.2 2.2 2.8
19 Anthony Black ORL 3.4 1.5 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.2 1.2 0.7
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.0 1.4 0.6
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.8 2.2 0.6
23 JT Thor CHA 2.8 1.3 0.6
24 Marques Bolden CHA 2.6 3.1 0.4
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.