NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
100–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31182130100
LAC20332227102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 40 36 17 10
Aaron Gordon S 36 18 6 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 16 4 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 14 9 1
Christian Braun 34 7 8 3
Reggie Jackson S 22 7 2 3
Peyton Watson 18 2 2 0
DeAndre Jordan 5 0 0 0
Julian Strawther 2 0 1 0
Justin Holiday 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 37 28 4 2
James Harden S 38 20 6 8
Ivica Zubac S 35 14 15 1
Russell Westbrook 24 12 6 5
Norman Powell 35 11 3 3
Amir Coffey 23 9 6 1
Terance Mann S 18 6 3 1
Mason Plumlee 13 2 2 0
P.J. Tucker S 17 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Norman Powell LAC
10%
5 Paul George LAC
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
14%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.5 12.0 7.9
2 Paul George LAC 23.3 5.0 3.3
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.2 7.0 2.2
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.8 7.1 4.6
5 Norman Powell LAC 15.3 2.9 1.8
6 James Harden LAC 13.6 4.7 9.0
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.8 9.1 1.5
8 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.6 2.1 4.7
9 Terance Mann LAC 9.9 3.0 1.4
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.7 3.1 2.5
11 Christian Braun DEN 9.3 3.9 2.1
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.2 2.8 3.3
13 Amir Coffey LAC 6.6 2.4 1.8
14 Bones Hyland LAC 6.0 1.7 2.7
15 Peyton Watson DEN 5.7 3.8 1.0
16 Justin Holiday DEN 5.4 1.8 1.0
17 Brandon Boston LAC 5.1 2.1 0.6
18 Daniel Theis LAC 4.8 3.5 1.1
19 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.4 1.3 1.5
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 3.6 0.8
21 Mason Plumlee LAC 2.6 2.3 0.6
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.5 2.3 0.5
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Julian Strawther DEN 2.0 0.6 0.4
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 0.8 0.4
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.7 1.6 0.3
27 Jay Huff DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.6 0.6 0.6
29 Xavier Moon LAC 1.6 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.