NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
133–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS33323434133
HOU24263327110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 29 6 6
Klay Thompson S 29 29 3 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 28 20 5 4
Andrew Wiggins S 23 10 5 2
Lester Quinones 4 9 0 0
Moses Moody 24 9 3 1
Chris Paul 22 8 2 3
Gary Payton II 14 8 2 0
Draymond Green S 29 5 8 5
Brandin Podziemski 24 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 24 3 2
Cam Whitmore 23 17 4 0
Jalen Green S 30 13 4 7
Fred VanVleet S 33 10 4 9
Amen Thompson S 30 8 4 1
Jock Landale 15 8 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 24 8 0 0
Jeff Green 17 8 1 1
Aaron Holiday 18 6 0 1
Boban Marjanovic 4 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
9%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Klay Thompson GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
44%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 26.4 6.9 5.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 4.6 5.7
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.6 3.8 8.7
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.3 3.4 3.0
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.9 6.1 1.9
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.8 10.0 3.3
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.4 6.3 1.6
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.7 4.4 1.3
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.8 3.0 1.9
10 Draymond Green GS 10.6 7.9 5.7
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.6 8.1 1.6
12 Chris Paul GS 9.7 3.8 5.1
13 Jock Landale HOU 9.3 5.1 1.4
14 Jeff Green HOU 8.0 3.3 1.1
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.6 5.5 2.2
16 Moses Moody GS 7.3 2.3 1.0
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.9 1.6 2.1
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 2.2 1.1
19 Kevon Looney GS 3.7 3.5 0.8
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 2.6 0.7
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 1.9 0.7
22 Lester Quinones GS 2.7 1.3 0.4
23 Jerome Robinson GS 1.9 0.8 0.3
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 1.7 1.7 0.3
25 Nate Williams HOU 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.