NBA games

SAC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC35252722109
NY20323533120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NY
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 29 7 7
Keegan Murray S 32 18 2 0
Domantas Sabonis S 36 17 11 7
Keon Ellis S 31 11 3 4
Sasha Vezenkov 14 11 2 2
Davion Mitchell 25 11 2 1
Trey Lyles 29 10 3 1
Alex Len 11 2 1 2
Chris Duarte 5 0 2 0
Colby Jones 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 35 2 11
Josh Hart S 43 31 9 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 39 21 5 1
Miles McBride S 43 12 4 3
Bojan Bogdanovic 12 12 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 7 7 9
Mitchell Robinson 15 2 7 2
Shake Milton 1 0 0 0
DaQuan Jeffries 1 0 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 9 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
11%
5 Josh Hart NY
9%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Miles McBride NY
8%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.7 3.2 7.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.3 5.7 6.4
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.1 12.2 7.4
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.6 4.0 2.9
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.2 5.5 2.0
6 Miles McBride NY 14.5 3.0 2.7
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.1 3.7 1.7
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.9 8.2 2.9
9 Josh Hart NY 11.7 8.8 5.4
10 Keon Ellis SAC 8.5 4.2 1.7
11 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 7.4 1.8 1.2
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.0 3.7 1.4
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.7 2.0 1.6
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.6 6.8 1.1
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.5 7.3 1.4
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.1 1.9 0.6
17 Alec Burks NY 4.8 1.8 0.8
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.6 1.8 0.7
19 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.4 1.3 0.5
20 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.4 1.7 0.3
21 Alex Len SAC 3.3 3.3 0.9
22 Shake Milton NY 2.9 1.9 0.7
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.2 1.6 0.7
24 JaVale McGee SAC 1.9 1.4 0.2
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.8 3.2 0.4
26 Jacob Toppin NY 1.6 0.6 0.2
27 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.2 0.4 0.3
28 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.1 0.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.