NBA games

PHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
109–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI39242422109
MIA29263317105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 37 9 11
Joel Embiid S 33 29 4 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 41 18 8 0
Kyle Lowry S 34 8 6 5
Cameron Payne 10 6 0 1
Paul Reed 15 5 4 0
KJ Martin 21 4 4 1
Buddy Hield 12 2 2 0
Nicolas Batum S 32 0 4 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 33 22 2 2
Jimmy Butler III S 40 20 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 29 14 11 3
Haywood Highsmith 29 12 9 2
Kevin Love 19 11 16 4
Nikola Jovic S 20 11 5 1
Caleb Martin 31 7 0 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20 6 4 3
Duncan Robinson S 20 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 7-foot two point shot (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
6 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
7 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
8 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
5%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
9%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.6 10.1 4.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.2 3.5 5.7
3 Terry Rozier MIA 21.1 4.6 3.6
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.3 11.1 4.2
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.2 5.1 5.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.9 6.1 2.7
7 Tobias Harris PHI 15.7 7.0 2.6
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.2 3.3 2.6
9 Caleb Martin MIA 10.2 3.9 2.5
10 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.9 2.7 3.7
11 De'Anthony Melton PHI 9.5 3.3 1.8
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.4 3.0 2.5
13 Buddy Hield PHI 9.0 2.9 1.5
14 Cameron Payne PHI 8.9 2.5 2.9
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.6 3.7 1.4
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.3 3.6 2.3
17 Paul Reed PHI 8.0 6.6 1.2
18 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.6 4.5 1.8
19 Kevin Love MIA 7.4 5.2 1.8
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.1 5.1 0.6
21 Mo Bamba PHI 7.0 5.9 1.1
22 Patty Mills MIA 5.1 1.2 1.5
23 KJ Martin PHI 4.4 2.8 1.1
24 Delon Wright MIA 4.3 1.7 1.6
25 Jamal Cain MIA 2.4 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.