NBA games

CLE @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
101–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE20273024101
PHX34382624122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHX
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 24 3 2
Jarrett Allen S 37 20 5 4
Evan Mobley S 36 20 9 5
Darius Garland S 40 15 1 8
Caris LeVert 24 11 3 1
Max Strus S 38 9 12 8
Sam Merrill 5 2 0 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 4 0 0 0
Isaiah Mobley 1 0 0 0
Tristan Thompson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 40 1 8
Kevin Durant S 36 32 6 7
Royce O'Neale S 35 17 6 2
Bol Bol 22 15 6 1
Bradley Beal S 32 7 6 7
Drew Eubanks 15 4 5 0
Eric Gordon 24 3 1 1
Saben Lee 1 2 0 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 2 10 6
David Roddy 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
9 Darius Garland CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
26%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.1 5.4 7.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 22.7 7.0 3.9
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.5 4.2 5.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.0 8.6 4.2
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.3 9.7 3.0
6 Bradley Beal PHX 15.9 4.6 6.6
7 Darius Garland CLE 14.9 3.5 7.2
8 Caris LeVert CLE 14.8 4.8 6.8
9 Max Strus CLE 13.3 3.0 4.2
10 Georges Niang CLE 12.9 3.1 1.8
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.4 10.3 3.4
12 Sam Merrill CLE 10.2 2.8 2.2
13 Eric Gordon PHX 8.1 2.1 1.7
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.6 3.9 1.8
15 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 7.1 2.8 1.3
16 Bol Bol PHX 4.8 2.7 0.8
17 Damian Jones CLE 4.7 2.7 0.6
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.6 3.8 0.9
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.2 1.8 1.0
20 Thaddeus Young PHX 3.4 3.3 0.8
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.0 2.9 1.0
22 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.8 2.1 0.6
23 Saben Lee PHX 2.5 1.3 1.3
24 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.4 1.1 0.7
25 Nassir Little PHX 2.2 0.9 0.4
26 David Roddy PHX 1.8 1.0 0.4
27 Pete Nance CLE 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.