NBA games

ORL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
117–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24343326117
NO26292132108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NO
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 32 6 4
Franz Wagner S 33 24 2 5
Moritz Wagner 15 18 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 14 11 3
Jonathan Isaac 22 8 5 2
Jalen Suggs S 30 7 4 2
Markelle Fultz 15 5 1 0
Cole Anthony 18 5 2 6
Joe Ingles 15 4 3 2
Gary Harris S 30 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 41 36 10 4
Dyson Daniels 21 16 2 3
Zion Williamson S 29 15 2 5
Trey Murphy III S 37 14 7 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 19 11 6 1
Naji Marshall 26 8 3 3
Herbert Jones S 41 6 0 1
Larry Nance Jr. 13 2 1 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 12 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes layup (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 CJ McCollum NO
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
10 Gary Harris ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
16%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 27.9 6.8 5.0
2 CJ McCollum NO 21.6 3.9 5.8
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.6 6.5 6.0
4 Franz Wagner ORL 16.8 4.7 3.4
5 Trey Murphy III NO 14.9 6.3 2.8
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.1 2.8 3.7
7 Cole Anthony ORL 11.4 4.2 2.2
8 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.7 3.1
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 7.4 2.5
10 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.2 4.9 0.8
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.8 3.1 1.4
12 Jonas Valanciunas NO 7.8 6.0 1.3
13 Gary Harris ORL 7.7 2.0 1.1
14 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.3 4.5 1.7
15 Naji Marshall NO 7.0 3.4 1.4
16 Dyson Daniels NO 6.0 3.2 2.1
17 Markelle Fultz ORL 5.4 2.6 2.0
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.2 1.7 2.8
19 Anthony Black ORL 3.1 1.4 0.6
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.9 1.1 0.6
21 E.J. Liddell NO 2.7 1.4 0.6
22 Matt Ryan NO 2.6 0.8 0.4
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.5 2.0 0.6
24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.1 1.0 0.6
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.7 0.8 0.3
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.4 0.8 0.3
27 Cody Zeller NO 1.0 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.