NBA games

TOR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
85–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR1923182585
MIN23353342133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIN
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 34 16 8 0
Javon Freeman-Liberty 27 16 5 6
Immanuel Quickley S 29 16 1 3
Jordan Nwora 30 14 13 5
Jalen McDaniels S 37 13 8 4
Garrett Temple S 34 7 2 0
Mouhamadou Gueye 19 3 6 0
Malik Williams S 31 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 28 3 6
Naz Reid S 26 23 7 1
Luka Garza 9 16 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 23 14 2 3
Monte Morris 25 13 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 27 11 15 3
Jaden McDaniels S 25 8 4 2
T.J. Warren 14 8 4 0
Leonard Miller 5 5 1 2
Kyle Anderson 17 3 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:38 Q1
"Jalen McDaniels makes 7-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
6 Naz Reid MIN
9%
7 Kelly Olynyk TOR
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
9 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
10 Bruce Brown TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
54%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.4 7.6 6.6
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.3 5.1 5.2
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.3 5.1 8.3
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 20.2 3.8 2.3
5 Naz Reid MIN 19.5 6.6 3.2
6 Kelly Olynyk TOR 15.3 6.2 6.0
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 12.7 2.0
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.1 4.7 1.7
9 Gradey Dick TOR 12.4 2.6 1.7
10 Bruce Brown TOR 11.5 3.6 3.6
11 Jordan Nwora TOR 10.9 4.0 1.6
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 10.7 4.9 5.7
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.0 2.7 1.9
14 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 7.1 3.5 1.7
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 6.6 2.3 2.5
16 Kobi Simmons TOR 6.1 2.1 2.4
17 Monte Morris MIN 5.5 1.7 1.7
18 Garrett Temple TOR 4.4 2.1 0.9
19 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 1.4 0.5
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.2 2.4 0.9
21 T.J. Warren MIN 3.3 1.5 0.6
22 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 3.1 2.3 0.6
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.0 1.0 0.5
24 Daishen Nix MIN 2.0 0.6 0.5
25 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.2 0.4
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.