NBA games

MEM @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
111–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26272632111
MIL22272923101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 35 3 4
GG Jackson S 37 15 12 1
Brandon Clarke 20 14 7 3
Jordan Goodwin 29 13 12 7
Jake LaRavia 28 9 2 2
Lamar Stevens 24 9 9 1
Trey Jemison III S 19 7 4 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 19 6 2 3
Luke Kennard S 27 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 38 25 10 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 21 7 8
Bobby Portis 28 19 7 3
Malik Beasley S 38 10 3 2
AJ Green 21 9 4 2
Pat Connaughton S 35 6 6 8
Jae Crowder S 25 6 2 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 9 3 2 0
Danilo Gallinari 7 2 1 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 1-foot layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
17%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
3 GG Jackson MEM
13%
4 Santi Aldama MEM
12%
5 Malik Beasley MIL
12%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
10%
8 Luke Kennard MEM
10%
9 Jake LaRavia MEM
0%
10 Jordan Goodwin MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.3 12.1 8.4
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.5 5.9 3.8
3 GG Jackson MEM 17.4 4.6 2.4
4 Bobby Portis MIL 15.5 8.5 2.0
5 Luke Kennard MEM 13.2 3.2 5.0
6 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.5 4.2 2.1
7 Malik Beasley MIL 12.5 3.4 1.5
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.4 4.7 1.9
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.2 3.4 4.5
10 Santi Aldama MEM 11.6 6.6 2.0
11 Lamar Stevens MEM 11.0 4.2 1.3
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.8 6.2 1.5
13 Jordan Goodwin MEM 9.6 6.7 4.6
14 Trey Jemison III MEM 8.3 4.9 1.1
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.4 3.1 2.9
16 Jae Crowder MIL 6.9 2.3 1.4
17 AJ Green MIL 5.3 1.6 0.8
18 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.2 1.7 1.1
19 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.9 1.4 1.5
20 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.7 1.5 0.8
21 Zavier Simpson MEM 3.0 1.8 2.9
22 Maozinha Pereira MEM 2.8 3.0 0.3
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.4 1.0 0.5
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.6 0.8 0.5
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.5 1.1 0.8
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.4 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.