NBA games

IND @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
111–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31312524111
BKN19422727115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BKN
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 26 9 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 24 3 8
Obi Toppin 20 14 8 1
Aaron Nesmith S 28 9 5 2
T.J. McConnell 19 8 3 5
Jalen Smith S 22 8 9 2
Andrew Nembhard S 29 8 2 3
Ben Sheppard 22 8 1 2
Isaiah Jackson 22 6 5 1
Doug McDermott 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 39 27 4 1
Noah Clowney 17 22 10 1
Mikal Bridges S 36 17 7 4
Nic Claxton S 31 14 13 2
Dennis Schroder S 36 12 6 11
Dorian Finney-Smith S 36 10 2 1
Cameron Johnson 22 5 3 2
Jalen Wilson 10 4 4 0
Trendon Watford 13 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes 18-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
13%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
10 T.J. McConnell IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.8 4.5 4.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.4 10.4 3.8
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.4 4.7 9.4
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 17.3 4.2 4.0
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 16.6 4.2 5.8
6 T.J. McConnell IND 13.7 3.5 4.9
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 12.5 3.9 2.0
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.0 11.1 1.7
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.5 4.0 1.7
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.1 2.7 3.1
11 Trendon Watford BKN 9.1 3.4 1.2
12 Jalen Smith IND 8.1 5.9 0.8
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.0 4.4 1.6
14 Obi Toppin IND 7.3 3.3 1.4
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 5.6 1.0
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.4 1.6 2.1
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 1.8 1.4
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.7 4.4 0.8
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.7 2.2 0.9
20 Doug McDermott IND 4.0 1.3 1.0
21 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 4.0 2.2 0.8
22 Jarace Walker IND 3.9 2.1 1.1
23 Noah Clowney BKN 3.8 2.6 0.7
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.2 1.9 0.5
25 Kendall Brown IND 2.2 1.1 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.