NBA games

OKC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC23243617100
BOS30313242135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home BOS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 28 17 6 2
Luguentz Dort S 28 15 5 0
Isaiah Joe 20 13 3 0
Cason Wallace S 28 12 1 5
Chet Holmgren S 27 11 7 2
Aaron Wiggins S 29 10 1 5
Kenrich Williams 25 7 1 0
Jaylin Williams 15 7 3 4
Lindy Waters III 10 4 1 1
Mike Muscala 6 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 27 12 4
Jayson Tatum S 29 24 7 3
Jaylen Brown S 33 23 7 4
Al Horford 25 16 4 2
Jrue Holiday S 32 12 7 4
Payton Pritchard 28 11 4 8
Sam Hauser 22 10 2 0
Derrick White S 31 8 1 6
Oshae Brissett 3 2 1 0
Luke Kornet 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
14%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.1 7.0 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.6 6.0 3.8
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.8 7.0 2.8
4 Josh Giddey OKC 18.9 7.0 6.0
5 Derrick White BOS 18.7 6.1 5.9
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 7.9 1.6
7 Sam Hauser BOS 12.8 4.2 1.5
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.8 3.4 5.1
9 Al Horford BOS 12.1 5.7 2.2
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.4 4.3 5.1
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.5 2.0
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.0 2.5 1.8
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.6 2.8 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.8 1.5
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 3.4 1.1
16 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.7 1.8 1.3
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 4.8 1.5
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.8 3.6 2.4
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.7 3.3 1.2
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.6 1.1
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.8 2.9 1.0
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.5 1.8 0.7
23 Mike Muscala OKC 2.7 1.6 0.6
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.9 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.