NBA games

DET @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET23272934113
ATL28313329121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ATL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malachi Flynn 34 50 6 5
Jalen Duren S 28 11 4 1
Marcus Sasser S 33 11 2 4
James Wiseman 20 9 5 2
Tosan Evbuomwan S 31 9 6 1
Chimezie Metu 28 9 5 3
Jaden Ivey S 27 8 3 4
Troy Brown Jr. S 24 6 5 2
Evan Fournier 15 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 37 28 14 11
De'Andre Hunter S 35 26 7 4
Dejounte Murray S 35 24 4 11
Clint Capela S 30 11 16 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 33 10 2 4
Kobe Bufkin 13 9 1 1
Garrison Mathews 19 9 3 0
Vit Krejci 20 4 0 1
Bruno Fernando 18 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
4 Clint Capela ATL
9%
5 Jalen Duren DET
9%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
8 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
9 Troy Brown Jr. DET
7%
10 Tosan Evbuomwan DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 26.0 5.9 9.8
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.9 5.5 7.6
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.4 7.6 4.4
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.0 4.7 5.0
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.2 3.9 4.7
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.6 4.4 2.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 10.9 2.0
8 Clint Capela ATL 12.7 10.9 2.0
9 James Wiseman DET 10.6 7.2 1.4
10 Vit Krejci ATL 10.2 3.0 2.3
11 Marcus Sasser DET 9.5 2.4 3.9
12 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.7 5.3 1.9
13 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.3 2.1 1.5
14 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 7.6 3.5 1.0
15 Evan Fournier DET 7.6 2.2 1.9
16 Chimezie Metu DET 6.6 3.7 1.4
17 Malachi Flynn DET 6.3 2.1 1.3
18 Wesley Matthews ATL 5.8 2.5 1.0
19 Jaylen Nowell DET 5.7 1.6 1.4
20 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.6 2.5 0.9
21 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.2 1.9 1.7
22 Stanley Umude DET 4.1 1.8 0.4
23 Jared Rhoden DET 3.8 1.9 0.8
24 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.4 1.0 0.4
25 Trent Forrest ATL 3.3 1.6 3.0
26 Seth Lundy ATL 2.8 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.