NBA games

LAL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
125–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL39283424125
WSH29312634120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home WSH
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 35 18 1
LeBron James S 36 25 7 9
Rui Hachimura S 27 19 7 1
D'Angelo Russell S 38 18 3 2
Austin Reaves S 35 16 4 4
Taurean Prince 16 5 7 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 19 4 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 10 3 0 2
Max Christie 4 0 0 0
Gabe Vincent 14 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 29 2 5
Corey Kispert S 35 17 3 3
Kyle Kuzma S 39 17 12 3
Tristan Vukcevic S 21 15 3 1
Justin Champagnie 19 13 7 2
Jared Butler 29 9 3 7
Deni Avdija S 22 7 2 2
Anthony Gill 21 6 2 3
Eugene Omoruyi 10 4 2 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 10 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 Anthony Gill WSH
8%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
10 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
39%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.7 8.3 9.0
2 Anthony Davis LAL 24.8 14.5 3.0
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.6 6.9 5.8
4 Jordan Poole WSH 22.0 3.7 7.1
5 Deni Avdija WSH 20.9 9.9 4.8
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.2 4.0 7.3
7 Austin Reaves LAL 18.8 6.4 6.3
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.5 5.9 1.9
9 Corey Kispert WSH 15.9 4.1 1.8
10 Jared Butler WSH 10.0 2.7 4.9
11 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 9.7 2.7 1.9
12 Taurean Prince LAL 8.2 2.9 1.4
13 Anthony Gill WSH 7.9 3.5 1.1
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.6 1.6 2.3
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 4.9 0.9
16 Johnny Davis WSH 5.3 2.3 1.3
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.6 2.5 0.9
18 Jules Bernard WSH 4.6 1.3 1.1
19 Max Christie LAL 4.3 1.9 0.8
20 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.3 2.4 0.9
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.2 3.3 1.1
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.6 1.9 0.7
23 Cam Reddish LAL 2.9 1.3 0.5
24 Colin Castleton LAL 2.8 1.6 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.