NBA games

POR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
89–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR3015222289
CHA2123222086

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CHA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 37 24 16 2
Scoot Henderson S 37 22 1 10
Jabari Walker S 42 14 22 2
Dalano Banton 34 12 2 3
Duop Reath 11 7 3 0
Kris Murray S 32 6 3 0
Rayan Rupert S 35 4 5 1
Ashton Hagans 13 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 30 21 2 1
Aleksej Pokusevski 21 11 3 1
Tre Mann S 35 11 3 2
JT Thor S 27 9 5 1
Marques Bolden 15 7 8 0
Davis Bertans S 27 7 1 4
Bryce McGowens 18 7 3 0
Grant Williams S 33 5 7 11
Leaky Black 15 4 1 1
Nick Smith Jr. 18 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 1-foot layup (Davis Bertans assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
19%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
5 Grant Williams CHA
9%
6 Kris Murray POR
9%
7 Tre Mann CHA
8%
8 Vasilije Micic CHA
7%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Leaky Black CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.8 6.6 4.4
2 Deandre Ayton POR 22.1 12.5 2.3
3 Dalano Banton POR 21.6 5.5 4.4
4 Scoot Henderson POR 18.3 4.7 7.2
5 Brandon Miller CHA 18.2 4.5 2.8
6 Grant Williams CHA 15.9 5.0 3.1
7 Vasilije Micic CHA 15.2 2.8 6.7
8 Tre Mann CHA 13.5 4.1 5.5
9 Jabari Walker POR 10.6 6.1 1.8
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR 10.1 3.9 1.7
11 Kris Murray POR 10.0 4.8 2.1
12 Duop Reath POR 8.7 3.4 1.3
13 Davis Bertans CHA 7.3 2.1 1.2
14 Ashton Hagans POR 7.1 3.5 4.1
15 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 6.8 4.0 1.9
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.6 3.2 1.7
17 Rayan Rupert POR 6.2 2.8 2.0
18 Leaky Black CHA 4.5 2.7 1.3
19 Moses Brown POR 3.7 2.9 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.4 1.2 0.9
21 JT Thor CHA 3.3 1.4 0.8
22 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.3 1.6 0.8
23 Marques Bolden CHA 2.7 2.6 0.6
24 Ibou Badji POR 1.9 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.