NBA games

LAC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
95–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2427192595
SAC24323518109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SAC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook 24 20 2 2
Paul George S 29 18 4 1
Norman Powell S 28 17 2 1
Ivica Zubac S 29 10 11 3
Brandon Boston 21 9 4 0
Terance Mann S 27 7 1 1
James Harden S 31 6 5 8
Amir Coffey 24 3 2 1
Daniel Theis 18 3 5 0
Bones Hyland 8 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 35 22 20 9
De'Aaron Fox S 34 20 3 7
Keegan Murray S 38 19 5 2
Trey Lyles 26 15 4 5
Davion Mitchell 25 14 4 3
Harrison Barnes S 25 6 2 1
Alex Len 12 4 7 1
Keon Ellis S 22 3 7 1
Chris Duarte 8 2 1 0
Colby Jones 1 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
3 Harrison Barnes SAC
13%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Terance Mann LAC
9%
8 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
9 Paul George LAC
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
32%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.4 5.7 6.7
2 Paul George LAC 22.2 5.0 3.7
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.4 12.8 7.8
4 Keegan Murray SAC 16.5 5.8 2.1
5 Norman Powell LAC 15.1 3.1 1.6
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 14.0 3.8 1.8
7 James Harden LAC 13.8 4.8 8.7
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.3 9.0 1.4
9 Terance Mann LAC 9.5 3.0 1.2
10 Keon Ellis SAC 9.4 3.9 1.8
11 Russell Westbrook LAC 8.8 3.0 3.3
12 Amir Coffey LAC 6.3 2.4 1.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.3 3.6 1.4
14 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.3 1.7 1.6
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.3 1.9 0.7
16 Chris Duarte SAC 5.1 2.0 0.9
17 Bones Hyland LAC 4.5 1.2 2.1
18 Daniel Theis LAC 3.5 2.5 0.7
19 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.5 1.3 0.6
20 Mason Jones SAC 3.5 1.5 1.5
21 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.3 2.6 0.7
22 Alex Len SAC 3.3 2.9 0.9
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.0 1.2 0.3
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.5 2.3 0.5
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.2 1.4 0.8
26 JaVale McGee SAC 2.1 1.4 0.3
27 Xavier Moon LAC 1.5 0.9 0.6
28 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.3 0.8 0.3
29 Kobe Brown LAC 1.1 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.