NBA games

CLE @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
129–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE40273032129
UTAH25223432113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home UTAH
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert S 34 26 6 5
Jarrett Allen S 33 21 12 5
Evan Mobley S 31 21 7 5
Sam Merrill 32 18 4 5
Max Strus S 33 15 4 6
Darius Garland S 32 8 3 8
Marcus Morris Sr. 19 8 0 2
Georges Niang 19 8 3 1
Damian Jones 4 4 1 1
Tristan Thompson 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 30 22 7 4
Collin Sexton S 34 19 3 7
Taylor Hendricks S 28 18 3 1
Luka Samanic 19 12 5 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 13 12 1 0
Omer Yurtseven 30 11 6 2
Keyonte George S 36 9 4 3
Walker Kessler S 9 6 0 1
Kris Dunn 23 2 4 5
Kira Lewis Jr. 17 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Caris LeVert · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Caris LeVert makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 John Collins UTAH
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
8%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.9 3.6 6.6
2 John Collins UTAH 19.0 7.4 1.6
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.8 10.3 2.8
4 Evan Mobley CLE 17.7 9.0 4.9
5 Darius Garland CLE 17.7 3.9 8.1
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.2 3.8 6.0
7 Keyonte George UTAH 16.2 3.4 5.3
8 Max Strus CLE 14.3 3.3 4.5
9 Caris LeVert CLE 14.1 5.1 7.7
10 Georges Niang CLE 13.5 3.4 1.9
11 Sam Merrill CLE 10.1 2.7 2.7
12 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.8 6.1 1.2
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 9.4 3.8 2.8
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.9 2.6 1.7
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.1 7.9 1.4
16 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 7.3 2.9 1.4
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.7 3.1 3.1
18 Damian Jones CLE 4.9 2.7 0.7
19 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.7 3.4 0.7
20 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 4.5 1.8 1.7
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.5 3.5 1.1
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.8 2.1 0.5
23 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.3 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.