NBA games

SA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA23313120105
DEN30253124110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DEN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malaki Branham S 37 24 3 1
Victor Wembanyama S 34 23 15 8
Zach Collins 18 13 8 2
Julian Champagnie S 37 11 5 2
Tre Jones S 32 10 12 11
Cedi Osman S 18 10 3 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24 10 9 1
Devonte' Graham 19 2 2 3
Blake Wesley 15 2 1 4
Sidy Cissoko 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 42 16 6
Aaron Gordon S 33 23 7 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 15 16 3
Reggie Jackson S 26 9 0 3
Peyton Watson 20 7 6 2
Christian Braun 27 5 2 7
Justin Holiday 23 5 3 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 4 0 2
DeAndre Jordan 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malaki Branham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Malaki Branham makes layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
5 Tre Jones SA
8%
6 Malaki Branham SA
8%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Reggie Jackson DEN
8%
10 Cedi Osman SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.7 12.4 8.7
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.1 12.0 5.1
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.3 6.2 2.0
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.4 6.9 4.2
5 Tre Jones SA 13.4 3.8 5.9
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.1 2.1 4.7
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.2 3.2 2.6
8 Christian Braun DEN 8.9 3.9 1.8
9 Zach Collins SA 8.6 4.8 2.2
10 Julian Champagnie SA 7.9 2.8 1.4
11 Malaki Branham SA 6.9 1.8 1.7
12 Cedi Osman SA 6.2 2.4 1.1
13 Peyton Watson DEN 5.7 3.7 1.1
14 Collin Gillespie DEN 5.4 1.6 1.8
15 Justin Holiday DEN 5.0 1.7 1.1
16 Blake Wesley SA 4.8 2.0 1.9
17 Devonte' Graham SA 4.0 1.5 0.8
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.9 3.6 0.8
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.6 2.6 0.7
20 David Duke Jr. SA 3.3 1.2 0.7
21 Jamaree Bouyea SA 2.8 1.6 1.2
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.1 0.6
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.7 1.0 0.7
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.3 1.5 0.6
25 Jay Huff DEN 2.3 1.2 0.5
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.