NBA games

HOU @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
106–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23222734106
MIN16382732113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 26 5 6
Fred VanVleet S 41 22 5 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 18 8 3
Cam Whitmore 23 14 1 0
Amen Thompson S 25 9 9 4
Jeff Green 21 8 6 2
Dillon Brooks S 29 5 1 1
Jock Landale 19 4 2 0
Aaron Holiday 6 0 0 2
Reggie Bullock Jr. 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 34 25 6 2
Anthony Edwards S 36 21 5 3
Mike Conley S 30 14 2 6
Kyle Anderson 30 13 6 9
Rudy Gobert S 35 12 14 0
Jordan McLaughlin 18 11 1 7
Jaden McDaniels S 27 8 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 7 1 0
Monte Morris 10 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:37 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 Naz Reid MIN
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
41%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 26.3 7.4 4.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.5 7.6 6.1
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.5 4.2 8.0
4 Naz Reid MIN 17.8 6.3 2.8
5 Mike Conley MIN 16.5 2.8 5.2
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.6 9.9 2.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.0 6.7 1.5
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.8 11.9 1.9
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.1 4.6 1.4
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.7 3.3 1.8
11 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.5 4.5 1.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.0 2.9 2.1
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.9 4.4 4.6
14 Jock Landale HOU 9.6 5.6 1.6
15 Jeff Green HOU 7.6 3.0 0.9
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.3 1.8 1.9
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.9 2.3 1.7
18 Monte Morris MIN 5.1 1.5 2.0
19 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 1.5 0.5
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 2.4 0.8
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.5 2.7 0.5
22 T.J. Warren MIN 3.0 1.5 0.5
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.1 1.3 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.0 1.7 0.2
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.0 1.1 0.6
26 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.2 0.4
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.