NBA games

GS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
106–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS32222230106
DAL31212729108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DAL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 28 6 5
Klay Thompson S 33 16 3 2
Brandin Podziemski 25 14 4 5
Gary Payton II 24 14 2 1
Moses Moody S 27 9 2 2
Chris Paul 31 9 5 8
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 20 8 8 1
Draymond Green S 34 6 7 3
Kevon Looney 10 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 40 32 5 3
Kyrie Irving S 42 26 8 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 13 3 3
Dante Exum S 33 11 2 7
Daniel Gafford S 31 10 15 5
Derrick Jones Jr. S 36 9 3 1
Jaden Hardy 14 5 3 2
Dwight Powell 8 2 2 1
A.J. Lawson 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 2-foot layup (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
13%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
10%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Klay Thompson GS
8%
10 Moses Moody GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
51%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.4 4.1 6.2
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.5 4.5 6.0
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.7 4.9 2.7
4 Klay Thompson GS 19.1 3.3 3.5
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.6 8.0 2.0
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.6 7.6 2.3
7 P.J. Washington DAL 11.2 6.4 1.6
8 Draymond Green GS 10.2 7.5 5.4
9 Chris Paul GS 10.0 3.6 5.4
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 9.0 3.1 2.1
11 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.7 3.3 1.3
12 Moses Moody GS 7.6 2.3 1.1
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.8 5.5 2.1
14 Dante Exum DAL 6.8 2.2 2.2
15 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 2.2 1.1
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.8 2.8 1.5
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.4 1.2
18 Lester Quinones GS 4.1 1.7 0.7
19 Kevon Looney GS 3.8 3.4 0.8
20 Brandon Williams DAL 2.8 1.1 1.0
21 Jerome Robinson GS 2.6 1.2 0.5
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.6 1.3 0.5
23 Alex Fudge DAL 2.6 1.6 0.6
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 1.5 0.6
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.4 1.3 0.5
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.