NBA games

NY @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
99–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2221302699
MIA34242526109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 35 31 4 4
Miles McBride S 45 24 2 2
Jalen Brunson S 36 20 2 10
Bojan Bogdanovic 19 16 6 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 18 4 1 2
Precious Achiuwa 27 2 6 0
Josh Hart S 46 2 6 7
Mitchell Robinson 10 0 1 0
Alec Burks 3 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 35 34 5 3
Jimmy Butler III S 39 17 5 6
Bam Adebayo S 33 15 9 1
Haywood Highsmith 28 14 8 1
Kevin Love 16 8 3 3
Caleb Martin 24 7 2 3
Duncan Robinson S 29 6 2 1
Nikola Jovic S 25 5 3 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 12 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jovic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Nikola Jovic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
9%
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Miles McBride NY
7%
10 Patty Mills MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.4 3.7 7.0
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.3 10.9 4.2
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.8 4.9 5.2
4 Terry Rozier MIA 18.1 4.5 3.6
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.9 4.0 2.9
6 Miles McBride NY 14.3 3.0 2.6
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.3 3.6 2.9
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 12.0 8.2 2.9
9 Caleb Martin MIA 9.8 4.0 2.3
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.8 3.4 2.5
11 Josh Hart NY 8.9 9.3 5.7
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.8 3.9 2.0
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 8.0 7.4 1.4
14 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.9 5.1 0.8
15 Kevin Love MIA 7.6 5.6 1.7
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.5 3.0 1.2
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.2 7.4 1.1
18 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 6.1 1.6 1.2
19 Alec Burks NY 5.9 1.9 0.9
20 Patty Mills MIA 5.3 1.4 1.7
21 Delon Wright MIA 4.8 1.9 1.7
22 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.9 1.9 0.4
23 Shake Milton NY 3.5 2.1 0.9
24 Jamal Cain MIA 3.1 1.2 0.8
25 Cole Swider MIA 2.9 1.0 0.6
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.4 1.9 0.8
27 Jericho Sims NY 2.1 3.2 0.4
28 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.7 0.3
29 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.5 0.5 0.4
30 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.