NBA games

MIL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
113–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28263227113
WSH27313326117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home WSH
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 35 15 10
Khris Middleton S 31 24 9 6
Pat Connaughton 29 15 8 5
Bobby Portis 25 12 12 3
Brook Lopez S 26 6 2 1
AJ Green 14 6 0 1
Jae Crowder 21 5 2 1
Malik Beasley S 30 5 2 1
Danilo Gallinari 6 3 2 0
Patrick Beverley S 22 2 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert S 38 27 7 0
Deni Avdija S 39 23 8 5
Jared Butler 17 17 3 3
Jordan Poole S 35 16 4 13
Tristan Vukcevic 31 14 7 3
Anthony Gill S 38 12 9 0
Marvin Bagley III S 9 4 3 0
Eugene Omoruyi 14 3 1 1
Johnny Davis 18 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
5 Marvin Bagley III WSH
10%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
8 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Patrick Beverley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
5%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.1 13.0 7.7
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.3 6.9 5.6
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.1 3.6 6.2
4 Deni Avdija WSH 19.8 9.9 4.5
5 Khris Middleton MIL 18.0 5.5 6.3
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.2 7.9 1.7
7 Corey Kispert WSH 15.0 3.8 1.9
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH 14.3 8.0 1.5
9 Malik Beasley MIL 13.2 3.6 1.5
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.1 4.9 1.8
11 Tyus Jones WSH 9.5 2.7 9.4
12 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.0 7.9 1.0
13 Jared Butler WSH 8.2 2.9 4.7
14 Jae Crowder MIL 6.9 2.2 1.3
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.8 2.7 2.5
16 Anthony Gill WSH 6.3 2.6 1.1
17 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.2 2.8 2.0
18 AJ Green MIL 5.1 1.7 0.8
19 Johnny Davis WSH 5.1 2.1 1.2
20 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.8 1.4 1.4
21 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.2 1.9 0.7
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.4 1.0 0.4
23 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.2 0.8 0.5
24 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 2.1 1.3 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.6 0.8 0.4
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.6 1.1 0.8
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.