NBA games

LAL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
128–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL34303628128
TOR25332132111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home TOR
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 33 25 2 7
LeBron James S 29 23 4 9
Anthony Davis S 28 21 12 1
Rui Hachimura S 26 14 4 4
Max Christie 20 12 7 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 25 9 1 1
Taurean Prince 24 8 5 5
Jaxson Hayes 19 7 7 2
Austin Reaves S 25 7 4 6
Maxwell Lewis 6 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 26 28 6 6
Immanuel Quickley S 27 20 3 6
Gradey Dick S 32 14 2 0
Kelly Olynyk S 27 14 7 4
Mouhamadou Gueye 14 6 2 2
Jordan Nwora 26 6 5 1
Garrett Temple 28 6 1 0
Bruce Brown S 28 5 6 1
Javon Freeman-Liberty 14 5 5 1
Kobi Simmons 10 5 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes alley oop layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
4 Kelly Olynyk TOR
8%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 RJ Barrett TOR
7%
8 LeBron James LAL
7%
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
7%
10 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
37%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.0 8.4 9.4
2 Anthony Davis LAL 24.9 13.8 3.4
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.6 4.2 7.7
4 RJ Barrett TOR 22.0 5.2 5.0
5 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 21.1 3.8 2.6
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.0 4.9 8.5
7 Austin Reaves LAL 20.7 6.5 6.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.9 5.7 2.1
9 Kelly Olynyk TOR 16.9 5.9 6.7
10 Gradey Dick TOR 13.8 2.7 2.4
11 Bruce Brown TOR 13.1 3.9 4.2
12 Jordan Nwora TOR 11.1 4.0 1.7
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 10.6 5.7 2.1
14 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.5 2.6 2.1
15 Taurean Prince LAL 8.2 2.9 1.2
16 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 7.5 3.5 2.0
17 Kobi Simmons TOR 6.6 2.1 2.7
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.3 4.0 0.7
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.5 2.4 1.0
20 Garrett Temple TOR 3.9 2.0 1.0
21 Max Christie LAL 3.8 1.6 0.8
22 Colin Castleton LAL 3.1 1.6 0.7
23 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 3.1 2.7 0.7
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.