NBA games

OKC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
105–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC22322625105
PHI25192936109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 29 22 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 33 15 8 3
Aaron Wiggins S 32 15 4 1
Isaiah Joe 28 14 4 7
Josh Giddey S 28 10 5 3
Kenrich Williams 14 8 1 0
Gordon Hayward 20 7 2 2
Cason Wallace 14 6 3 1
Jaylin Williams S 28 6 6 12
Lindy Waters III 8 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 25 6 2
Joel Embiid S 29 24 6 7
Tobias Harris S 35 18 6 4
Paul Reed 19 12 9 1
Cameron Payne S 30 10 10 5
Buddy Hield 21 7 2 0
Nicolas Batum 30 7 2 2
Kyle Lowry S 28 4 1 4
KJ Martin 12 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
29%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
8 Kyle Lowry PHI
6%
9 Cameron Payne PHI
6%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
20%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 34.4 10.1 6.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.6 3.5 6.0
3 Josh Giddey OKC 19.3 6.8 6.1
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.6 6.2 2.7
5 Tobias Harris PHI 16.6 7.5 2.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.5 8.3 1.7
7 Kyle Lowry PHI 10.3 2.8 4.0
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 2.8 1.9
9 Buddy Hield PHI 9.4 2.8 1.8
10 Cameron Payne PHI 9.0 2.0 2.8
11 Paul Reed PHI 7.4 6.4 1.4
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.3 4.5 1.7
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.2 2.1 1.5
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.7 1.6
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.4 2.4 1.4
16 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.6 1.9 1.6
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 3.8 1.4
18 KJ Martin PHI 4.3 3.1 1.1
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.1 3.3 1.4
20 Robert Covington PHI 3.8 2.8 0.8
21 D.J. Wilson PHI 2.5 1.1 0.7
22 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.1 2.3 0.9
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.0 0.8 0.4
24 Mike Muscala OKC 2.0 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.