NBA games

PHX @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
124–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX46282921124
NO28263621111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NO
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 52 3 9
Kevin Durant S 41 20 7 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 36 19 19 4
Bradley Beal S 39 13 9 6
Grayson Allen S 33 11 2 4
Drew Eubanks 12 4 2 1
Eric Gordon 19 3 1 1
Royce O'Neale 15 2 4 1
Bol Bol 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 37 30 2 5
Trey Murphy III S 32 21 6 4
CJ McCollum S 40 15 5 9
Jonas Valanciunas S 24 11 7 1
Larry Nance Jr. 19 9 7 1
Dyson Daniels 25 9 7 5
Herbert Jones S 33 9 1 3
Naji Marshall 15 4 1 1
Jordan Hawkins 15 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 11-foot jumper (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
7%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
54%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 27.2 7.2 4.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.6 5.6 6.8
3 Kevin Durant PHX 23.0 7.0 3.7
4 CJ McCollum NO 21.2 4.0 5.7
5 Bradley Beal PHX 17.1 4.4 6.2
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.3 3.7 3.3
7 Trey Murphy III NO 14.2 6.0 2.8
8 Herbert Jones NO 11.3 3.7 3.3
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.8 9.7 3.2
10 Eric Gordon PHX 7.8 1.9 1.6
11 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.7 4.2 2.1
12 Naji Marshall NO 7.4 3.8 1.6
13 Jonas Valanciunas NO 7.2 5.8 1.5
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.9 3.8 1.7
15 Dyson Daniels NO 5.8 3.0 2.2
16 Josh Okogie PHX 4.5 2.0 1.1
17 Bol Bol PHX 4.4 2.5 0.6
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.0 3.9 0.7
19 Matt Ryan NO 3.8 1.2 0.7
20 Jalen Crutcher NO 3.7 1.0 1.3
21 Thaddeus Young PHX 3.5 3.4 0.7
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.3 1.1 0.8
23 E.J. Liddell NO 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.9 2.0 0.5
25 Nassir Little PHX 2.6 1.1 0.5
26 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.6 1.1 0.8
27 David Roddy PHX 2.2 1.2 0.5
28 Cody Zeller NO 1.4 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.