NBA games

ATL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32292923113
CHI30232127101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 34 20 4 6
Vit Krejci S 25 18 4 3
Dejounte Murray S 33 17 8 6
Clint Capela S 26 15 11 1
Jalen Johnson 25 11 4 1
Bruno Fernando 22 10 4 4
Garrison Mathews 17 9 1 1
De'Andre Hunter S 33 8 6 4
Kobe Bufkin 17 3 2 3
Wesley Matthews 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 31 2 5
Coby White S 39 22 3 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 15 3 1
Andre Drummond 20 13 18 0
Alex Caruso S 33 8 5 3
Nikola Vucevic S 31 5 14 3
Terry Taylor 10 4 2 0
Jevon Carter 7 3 1 0
Torrey Craig 13 0 2 0
Adama Sanogo 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
4 Coby White CHI
10%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
8 Dejounte Murray ATL
8%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
8%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 26.2 5.9 9.2
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.2 5.2 5.2
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 20.0 3.3 5.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.7 9.9 3.8
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.9 4.3 4.9
6 Coby White CHI 17.8 4.1 5.1
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.7 8.1 4.4
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.0 4.0 2.2
9 Alex Caruso CHI 14.7 4.4 5.4
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.2 10.6 1.8
11 Vit Krejci ATL 8.8 2.8 2.2
12 Andre Drummond CHI 8.3 8.5 0.8
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.0 5.4 1.5
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.9 1.9 1.3
15 Torrey Craig CHI 7.3 3.0 1.5
16 Wesley Matthews ATL 5.3 2.1 1.0
17 Dalen Terry CHI 5.0 2.8 1.6
18 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.5 1.7 1.0
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 0.9 1.0
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.8 3.1
21 Andrew Funk CHI 2.8 0.7 0.4
22 Kobe Bufkin ATL 2.7 1.1 1.0
23 Seth Lundy ATL 2.7 1.2 0.6
24 Adama Sanogo CHI 2.4 1.8 0.3
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.0 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.