NBA games

POR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
103–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR23252530103
ORL22332821104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home ORL
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 35 26 5 5
Deandre Ayton S 36 20 12 3
Jabari Walker S 40 18 9 5
Scoot Henderson S 35 13 8 9
Rayan Rupert S 31 11 1 2
Kris Murray S 29 7 5 1
Moses Brown 3 4 1 1
Duop Reath 17 2 3 0
Ashton Hagans 13 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 33 20 6 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 17 13 5
Paolo Banchero S 36 15 4 4
Jalen Suggs S 33 15 3 7
Gary Harris S 35 14 4 2
Cole Anthony 15 9 3 1
Moritz Wagner 12 8 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 17 6 4 0
Markelle Fultz 13 0 3 4
Joe Ingles 15 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Gary Harris makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Kris Murray POR
10%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Jabari Walker POR
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Gary Harris ORL
8%
10 Rayan Rupert POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
32%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.7 6.7 6.7
2 Deandre Ayton POR 21.5 12.1 1.9
3 Dalano Banton POR 19.3 5.3 3.9
4 Scoot Henderson POR 17.8 4.2 5.4
5 Franz Wagner ORL 17.5 4.6 3.8
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.1 3.1 3.8
7 Cole Anthony ORL 13.1 4.3 2.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 7.7 2.5
9 Kris Murray POR 10.2 4.6 2.3
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.5 3.6 1.5
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.3 5.5 1.4
12 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.6 4.9 0.9
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.5 3.7 1.8
14 Duop Reath POR 8.0 2.9 1.2
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.7 2.0 1.3
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.9 3.1 1.7
17 Ashton Hagans POR 6.3 3.0 3.6
18 Joe Ingles ORL 6.1 1.8 3.1
19 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.0 2.7 2.0
20 Rayan Rupert POR 5.1 2.5 2.0
21 Anthony Black ORL 4.3 1.9 0.9
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.7 2.5 1.0
23 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Moses Brown POR 2.5 2.0 0.4
26 Ibou Badji POR 2.2 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.